My Prediction

Well folks, here we are, a little more than 24 hours before the first polls start closing and we all sit back and watch and wait to see how the events of the last two years will play out.

No matter what, half of us are going to wake up on Wednesday not happy. Or, it could be later depending on how close things shape up. If things play out as I'm predicting, which we'll get into, things may still be up in the air come Wednesday morning.

Here is what I think will happen.

I think we'll know how this race is going to shape up by looking at North Carolina. If Obama wins North Carolina, this could be a VERY LONG night for McCain and the GOP. If Obama can pull out a win in a southern, conservative state like NC, then to me, that says it could be a blow out.

As a McCain supporter, here is why I'm concerned. If you look at the travel schedule for the candidates over the last few weeks, that gives me a pretty good indication of how this race is trending.

Unfortunately for McCain, most of the campaigning is being done in states that went for Bush in 2004. Indiana, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, Nevada, and Colorado. In reality, that doesn't mean the McCain, can't and won't win those states, but it is never a good sign when you are defending, what should be your terriority, in the weeks leading up. Obviously, that bolds well for Obama because that means he's solidfied the states that Kerry won in 2004 and he's going after new states. Granted, states like Ohio, Missouri and Florida have been battle states long before this year, so it isn't suprising that both candidates have spent a lot of time there.

Here is how I see some of the battleground states breaking out tomorrow night.

Indiana -- McCain
Florida -- McCain
North Carolina -- McCain
Missouri -- McCain
Colorado -- Obama
Ohio -- McCain
Virginia -- Obama
Nevada -- Obama
New Mexico -- Obama

and finally, for my upset special...

Pennsylvania -- McCain (I think Obama's earlier comments about the rural areas of the state, along with Congressman John Murtha's comments -- followed by Obama's comments that have just been published about bankrupting the coal industry will come back to haunt the Obama campaign)

However, after all is said and done, IF these states break this way and they both win the states they are expected to win here is how my map would distribute the electoral college.

Obama -- 270
McCain -- 268

If my prediction holds true, Barack Obama is the 44th president of the United States...BARELY.

I think the two key states to watch are Pennsylvania and Virgina. Obama has put a lot of time, effort and resources into Virginia. McCain has put a lot of time, effort and resources in Pennsylvania. I don't see McCain winning the presidency without both of those states in his column.

All in all, there are more "IF THIS HAPPENS" McCain can win scenarios than for Obama. Obama is clearly in the driver's seat, but I don't think it is as commanding position as the media would have us believe.

I do think that the undecideds will break for McCain and if he is going to pull of the upset, they will have to.

Don't count out the effect of Obama's comments about the coal industry and the effect it will have in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado, West Virginia and parts of Indiana. It isn't going to show up in the polls b/c it is just now being revealed, but it could really hurt him in these states.

My head is telling me Obama, but obviously, my heart is with McCain. I've had so many friends and family telling me that McCain is going to pull this out. My mother-in-law wants to ring my neck b/c I keep telling her that I think McCain is going to lose.

So here it is...for the record

Popular Vote:
Obama 49%
McCain 48%
Other 2%

Electoral College:
Obama 270
McCain 268

I think Wednesday the 5th could be very interesting and in reality, we could see a repeat of 2000. I think this will be VERY CLOSE.

MORE...

FOX News poll shows Obama gap widening.