Yesterday’s election was indeed historic. Republicans rode a massive tidal wave of anger and angst to a new majority in the House of Representatives and nearly pulled off a takeover in the Senate. Minus the Democrats barely holding on to the Senate, it was almost a repeat of 1994, however Republican did gain more seats in the House (63) than they did in 1994 (54).
It was the largest loss by a president’s party in almost 7 decades. Before 1994, the largest party switches occurred with 55 seats in 1942 and 71 seats in 1938, which was before state legislatures began redrawing congressional districts each decade to ensure incumbents' safe reelection, reducing large swings. Historically, the largest membership swing ever was in 1894. That occurred during a similar time of economic uncertainty during another Democratic administration (Grover Cleveland).
Ironically, the same soaring rhetoric that led to Obama’s victory in 2008 is what defeated him and Democrats yesterday. Voters are clearly dissatisfied with Obama's oft-promised but lame job creation numbers, the lack of economic recovery from hundreds of billions in stimulus spending, concerns over continuing spending, mounting federal deficits and staggering national debt. While the deficits and debt are not all Obama’s fault, he clearly has done nothing to hold it in check or reduce it. This is clearly a case where candidate Obama over promised and under delivered as President Obama.
However, as John Boehner and the crew are measuring for drapes in the Speaker’s Office, Republicans shouldn’t brag too much about their victories. The results of last night should be put in perspective. The message the American people sent last night was not one of acceptance of the Republican platform or message, it was more of a rejection of President Barack Obama and the work, or lack thereof, done by the Democratic Congress over the last two years
The victory by Republicans yesterday is the equivalent of winning a baseball game on a bases-loaded walk. It wasn’t necessarily earned, it was given. Last night, voters did exactly what they did in 2008 and 2006. Instead of voting a political party INTO power, they voted a political party OUT of power.
Miraculously, Republicans have been given a second chance. They may not have earned it, but it is theirs nonetheless. Soon to be Speaker John Boehner has promised fiscal restraint, but so did Republicans back in 1994. My friend, Congressman Zach Wamp, has said several times that those same Republicans that were elected in 1994 soon became more concerned about re-election than they did about the conservative principles for which they were elected. That philosophical change of course led to their demise in 2006 when they lost majorities in the House and Senate.
John Boehner has called this victory a mandate and maybe he is right. But the new majority cannot misread this mandate as the President and Democrats did two years ago. This mandate calls for government to be smaller, for reducing our national debt, for reigning in spending, for reducing taxes on small business and most of all, for creating an environment where our economy can grow and create jobs.
Republicans have been given an opportunity. This time around though, Republicans must EARN the right to keep their majority in 2012. The judgment on this new majority begins today as does the 2012 race for Congress and for President. Many political pundits predicted a short 24 months ago that the Republican Party was dead, saying it had no vision and no leadership. However the winds of political change and the patience of the American voter have shown that political death is now not only temporary, but apparently short-lived.
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